Watching The Watchers

Lots of Apple watchers are watching the launch of the watch. Watch out for the usual suspects, especially as there have been plenty of rumors of stock manipulation lately.

Some very smart people are missing key elements.

• We really do want to get people to stop staring at big black rectangles all the time. It looks horrible and it’s bad for public space. This will help.
• There’s some intense engineering in this thing. The crown — the “winding knob” — appears to be milled on a very complex lathe. It must have cost a fortune to design and build. But it's the part with which you interact; they’ve really worked on it. Similarly, the straps and their attachments are apparently both innovative and very tricky.
• The myriad styles and materials are unusual for Apple and will pose all sorts of logistical headaches. It’s not my thing, for sure. But a watch is, literally, a fashion accessory: to succeed, it has to come in lots of flavors.
• Yes, it’s too big. Moore’s Law (and better battery technology) will fix that in 3-5 years.
• When thinking about buying one of these watches, keep in mind that it’s a computer. Computers last two or three years.
• Right now, I think the compelling case for the watch falls into three categories:
  • people who need a health monitor for arrhythmia, panic attacks, sleep disorders, etc.
  • serious runners and athletes.
  • people who are always checking their phone to see if the wheels have fallen off or their next appointment has been cancelled.

For these people, the watch is going to be a huge benefit.

• Apple will sell some of these. Once it does, that’s means a ton of people who have an extra screen on their wrist, and that changes the whole software ecosphere. It wasn’t that long ago when Ted Nelson was arguing that everyone needed their own computer. Now, we'll be able to assume that your garden variety US business user has (or can easily acquire):
  • a portable Cray-1 class computer with a 200dpi display and broadband internet.
  • a second pocket computer with continuous network access, GPS, a megapixel color display, and a camera.
  • a satellite computer worn on the wrist with a high-resolution display size a little under a square inch.
• My guess is that, somewhere around 2017, looking at your phone in company is going to be considered bad manners, but looking at your watch will be OK.
• It really is a two-way wrist radio.
• Moving attention and data from the wrist machine, the pocket machine, the desktop machine, and the machine on the wall is going to be tricky, and that’s where Apple will have a huge advantage over everyone.